Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Vermont Catamounts (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4ed02b15ab14a225a2089a57fcbbd851e1d701e63095f604cf86a6d115f8117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maine Black Bearsof Vermont Catamounts, Maine Black Bears
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Vermont Catamounts | 54c | 29,999$16,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,265.86 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Maine Black Bears | 46c | 16,025$7,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,585.15 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Maine Black Bears | 45c | 11,565$5,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,360.81 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Maine Black Bears | 49c | 1,953$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.81 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Maine Black Bears | 46c | 1,000$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Vermont Catamounts | 54c | 794.05$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.4 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Vermont Catamounts | 53c | 697$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.16 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vermont Catamounts | 51c | 535.59$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.06 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Maine Black Bears | 46c | 306.59$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.6 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Maine Black Bears | 47c | 303.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.51 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Maine Black Bears | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Maine Black Bears | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 388 | 37.6%146 W · 242 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Maine Black Bears | 50c | 199.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.65 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | +14.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe43c…ccd5backed Vermont Catamounts | 53c | 173.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Maine Black Bears | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Maine Black Bears | 47c | 90$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Vermont Catamounts | 53c | 71.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Vermont Catamounts | 52c | 60.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fea8backed Maine Black Bears | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed Vermont Catamounts | 55c | 51.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Vermont Catamounts | 52c | 50.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Vermont Catamounts | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0622…cbc0backed Maine Black Bears | 47c | 45.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Maine Black Bears | 47c | 44.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Maine Black Bears | 48c | 43.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked Maine Black Bears | 46c | 42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 316 | 66.1%209 W · 107 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd410…bce5backed Maine Black Bears | 47c | 41.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf1…796ebacked Maine Black Bears | 47c | 41.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Maine Black Bears | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Maine Black Bears | 46c | 34.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 423 | 39.2%166 W · 257 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Maine Black Bears | 46c | 32.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Maine Black Bears | 48c | 31.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Vermont Catamounts | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 51.5%102 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Vermont Catamounts | 52c | 22.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.4wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Vermont Catamounts (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Vermont Catamounts (-6.5)Maine Black Bears won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. Maine Black BearsMaine Black Bears won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. Maine Black Bears: O/U 129.5Over won
- Vermont Catamounts vs. Maine Black Bears: O/U 130.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.