Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4f9210dd2cf27ce8be5b5c144cb7439d8ecc35bb905816e0495a4ce4942dc1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,610
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,610 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 37c | 15,000$5,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,450 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 63c | 14,988$9,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,442.37 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa576…89a4backed Yes | 32c | 10,000$3,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,198.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 7,096$4,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.02 | 464 | 54.3%252 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 60c | 3,273$1,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.28 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 45c | 3,252$1,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,787.81 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3859…3070backed Yes | 50c | 2,100$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 53c | 1,392$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656.66 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 64c | 1,241$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$793.17 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 65c | 617.78$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Yes | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 62c | 392$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.89 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…6842backed Yes | 64c | 390$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d30…1bc2backed Yes | 64c | 313$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 36c | 312.22$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.88 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 36c | 292.81$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47e…8ae4backed No | 69c | 201.79$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Yes | 64c | 179.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.33 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 53c | 160.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.29 | 166 | 47.6%79 W · 87 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…19ddbacked Yes | 65c | 154.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…b1d5backed Yes | 64c | 148.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 35c | 128.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.56 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 65c | 110$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 59c | 107.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa041…04d2backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…7ed4backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67df…772fbacked Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…6e52backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…3f03backed Yes | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Yes | 39c | 96.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 72c | 90$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 34c | 82.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 447 | 68%304 W · 143 L | +52.8wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7892…ae83backed Yes | 66c | 75.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 59c | 63.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…37fabacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 36c | 61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 169 | 53.8%91 W · 78 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62a…29bdbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 36c | 50.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.32 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Yes | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…cd3abacked No | 35c | 33.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…5202backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8777…66d0backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6965…a8adbacked Yes | 67c | 30.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f42…5b96backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed5…1ddcbacked Yes | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6301…c97dbacked Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5da…812dbacked Yes | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9160…5bfebacked Yes | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…8daebacked Yes | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b94…7937backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-01?this page
- Will AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen end in a draw?Yes won
- Will SC Heerenveen win on 2025-11-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.