Serie A · resolved market
Will AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd50905fffda1c28eb3c5717ec1b3a13b56e4ed0de9991cbf65ce7a0c0cadc4df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,733
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80da…2086backed Yes | 15c | 3,261$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 2,466$1,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.53 | 481 | 44.1%212 W · 269 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…bc5ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,845$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.21 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 26c | 1,800$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 84 | 63.1%53 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 72c | 1,347$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.83 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,231$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b20…de61backed No | 74c | 781.08$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 12c | 624.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked Yes | 26c | 601$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.16 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 74c | 459.28$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.41 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…39fcbacked No | 74c | 405$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95a…d895backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…6bfebacked Yes | 26c | 380.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fd…4e90backed Yes | 28c | 359.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x739d…d2ffbacked Yes | 23c | 271.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.06 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 26c | 218$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +5.9wins | +0.28per pick | 29cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked No | 73c | 183.11$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Yes | 26c | 182$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 74c | 175$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 372 | 50.5%188 W · 184 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 73c | 153.79$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.52 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e6…cbd8backed Yes | 26c | 144.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 27c | 133.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 73c | 132.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 208 | 41.8%87 W · 121 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61a…61afbacked Yes | 27c | 118.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 27c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 455 | 47%214 W · 241 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Yes | 26c | 97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 969 | 42.3%410 W · 559 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…44f3backed No | 75c | 86.67$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Yes | 26c | 86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 25.9%22 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 73c | 53.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb780…e7a2backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…2b47backed No | 74c | 47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yes | 26c | 46.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 74c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 75c | 45.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…6ba8backed Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…89e2backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…cfd3backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa60…d867backed Yes | 27c | 42.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e8…6001backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 74c | 37.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 195 | 49.7%97 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed No | 74c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 73c | 31.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 75c | 25.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 248 | 49.2%122 W · 126 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…a9a3backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2087…1219backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ab…3258backed No | 74c | 14.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AS Roma vs. Genoa CFC end in a draw?this page
- Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-29?Yes won
- Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.