Fed Rates · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield >4.5% next Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd50ca459d0c5da2c1026260c1b627b9aea997f589046e719c6c7294fc17ecaa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,336
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,336 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 17c | 860$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.65 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 52c | 709.01$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 63c | 572.27$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 39c | 457.96$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.82 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681a…ab42backed No | 50c | 421$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 24c | 387.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 71c | 345.73$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.48 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 23c | 295.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…e3ccbacked No | 39c | 204.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 189.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed No | 38c | 165$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 22c | 160$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…f0afbacked No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 63c | 122.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 56c | 122.11$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 53c | 115$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.1 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c89…9d7fbacked No | 40c | 100.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5293…4b34backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…d298backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2478…2e62backed Yes | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked No | 27c | 65.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 40c | 65.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbf39…cd66backed No | 32c | 59.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked No | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed No | 22c | 51.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 68c | 44.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…1815backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e03…beafbacked No | 51c | 39.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked No | 65c | 27.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +52%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.