Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51a39b5a204abbe43ee3ae9cbbbb6215568fff7a6a3e2bbe98cb0d5dce9b6a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Team Yandex, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Aurora | 60c | 2,972$1,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.93 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Team Yandex | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Team Yandex | 41c | 600$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Yandex | 41c | 589.71$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.96 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d36…f787backed Aurora | 59c | 547.38$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.45 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Yandex | 45c | 409.09$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.09 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Team Yandex | 47c | 384.52$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.43 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9044…dcedbacked Team Yandex | 49c | 364.99$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Team Yandex | 39c | 180$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.85 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Team Yandex | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.55 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…b26bbacked Aurora | 60c | 100.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.48 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Yandex | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Yandex | 39c | 97.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…fbccbacked Team Yandex | 38c | 79.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Aurora | 54c | 76.45$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Aurora | 59c | 73.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…4c92backed Team Yandex | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 36.9%52 W · 89 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b39…8b50backed Aurora | 60c | 61.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Aurora | 39c | 60.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Aurora | 62c | 57.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 268 | 46.6%125 W · 143 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Aurora | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96dc…2c45backed Team Yandex | 55c | 47.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Aurora | 67c | 46.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Yandex | 25c | 44.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…589ebacked Aurora | 61c | 41.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Yandex | 52c | 36.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Aurora | 71c | 36.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…0242backed Team Yandex | 61c | 34.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Team Yandex | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Aurora | 63c | 27.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Aurora | 61c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…c605backed Team Yandex | 62c | 19.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked Aurora | 69c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Aurora | 65c | 17.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs Aurora (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group StageAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.