Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd51c9b23438fbd2ba3fd5eadd068b6bce402e458401467d5bed433d04ff985b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,372
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,372 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 51c | 1,784$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.95 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,072$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.5 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 569.82$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 568.74$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.95 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 49c | 483$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.91 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 52c | 408.7$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 51c | 406.82$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.59 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 255.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d2…4142backed No | 48c | 240.28$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 41c | 207.09$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 47c | 198.34$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 182.28$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 119$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 116.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 55c | 116.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…22b8backed No | 46c | 115.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 135 | 27.4%37 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 110.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 110.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 103.06$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 44c | 102.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.49 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…5558backed Yes | 78c | 100.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 57c | 87.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 50c | 86.87$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 38c | 82.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 54c | 73.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 52c | 57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 50.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 50.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 52c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…1c6ebacked No | 43c | 46.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 41c | 45.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 45.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a95…fba0backed Yes | 49c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 47c | 40.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 55c | 36.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 75c | 36.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 69c | 35.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ed…0d9abacked Yes | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 33.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…b631backed Yes | 57c | 33.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 44c | 32.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…c577backed Yes | 69c | 32.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e8…2e62backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5a…e224backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 42c | 29.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 48c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 46c | 24.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or higher on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.