Premier League · resolved market
Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd555de430fac02eaa196a6c75c9b1f25fb67c83b436aadcf0ea367463e3cb73a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 19c | 12,163$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.35 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 21c | 4,413$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.45 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 1,915$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 18c | 1,513$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 359 | 41.5%149 W · 210 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 19c | 1,505$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eca…fc20backed Over | 80c | 953.61$763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 15c | 781.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 401 | 50.1%201 W · 200 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 13c | 306.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Under | 19c | 284$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.96 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 51cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…1950backed Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 19c | 212.34$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 20c | 195$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 18c | 183.08$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 139 | 41%57 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 26c | 139.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 127 | 48.8%62 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 11c | 113.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6664…f53dbacked Under | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Over | 75c | 67.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 20c | 65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked Over | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65eb…5918backed Over | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked Over | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Over | 80c | 41.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 286 | 54.2%155 W · 131 L | -11.3wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…fdccbacked Over | 80c | 24.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc9…fa88backed Over | 80c | 20.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Over | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 64cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2614…1000backed Over | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Manchester United (-1.5)Manchester United won
- Wolves vs. Manchester United: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 2.5Over won
- Wolves vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.