Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd55867cc20f58b22c25dc80b53bdb3acf0f45895d1a05cdc8f6e27844f6d81f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked Yes | 62c | 1,917$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.54 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 61c | 1,205$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.98 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed8…93d4backed Yes | 38c | 710.16$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.7 | 143 | 25.2%36 W · 107 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 63c | 707.25$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.75 | 71 | 22.5%16 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked Yes | 37c | 535.27$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.57 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 49cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed No | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…c1f3backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 64c | 250$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 64c | 234.6$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 39c | 175.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 62c | 170$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 63c | 152.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked Yes | 38c | 110$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3b…9240backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 64c | 69.69$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…49d7backed Yes | 36c | 69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked Yes | 39c | 58.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 32c | 50.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5073…16a7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…9c48backed Yes | 34c | 35.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +193.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…9f6dbacked Yes | 37c | 34.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…2362backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8be0…77a6backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f6…fc9bbacked No | 65c | 17.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?this page
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?No won
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?No won
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?No won
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.5%?No won
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%?No won
- Will the May 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.