Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd56017fd7a82c04624f0d8af1041473796e4ee08390a34d0db272728658a4fab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed No | 52c | 2,928$1,532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 7c | 2,710$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.73 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 2,561$1,732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed Yes | 48c | 2,533$1,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,220.84 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,158$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.93 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed No | 52c | 1,748$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.69 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 48c | 1,522$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.66 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b9…ad8fbacked No | 72c | 593.23$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed No | 52c | 567.4$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.35 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 48c | 531.17$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.96 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 31c | 518.09$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes | 19c | 500.74$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 6c | 485.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 14c | 433.8$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 19c | 403.56$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 22c | 340.16$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 19c | 306.3$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked No | 53c | 275.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 48c | 265.8$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 15c | 196.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 78c | 146.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…d028backed No | 78c | 126.82$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 53c | 98.26$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfef2…492fbacked Yes | 19c | 87.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 19c | 74.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked No | 52c | 74.03$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 52c | 67.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked No | 52c | 67.62$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 49c | 64.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 52c | 63.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…af5ebacked Yes | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Yes | 47c | 37.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked No | 52c | 37.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…bdfcbacked Yes | 49c | 35.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 47c | 31.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b2…dcc5backed No | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 80c | 26.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked No | 52c | 25.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 79c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 79c | 18.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed No | 80c | 12.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +256.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.