Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0baea67ccfb4c06d2dc66bd5faedb94258f509c2fd613a859c39484d0d44ff33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 5,484$3,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,578.28 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 26c | 3,674$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.65 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 48c | 2,799$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,343.55 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes | 26c | 2,160$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 45c | 1,923$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 74c | 990$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.4 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 966.6$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 47c | 527.05$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.37 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 40c | 491.5$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.9 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 48c | 484.4$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.89 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…2821backed No | 41c | 389.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.03 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 57c | 221.55$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 39c | 168.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 44c | 159.53$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.43 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 42c | 155.06$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed No | 45c | 153.46$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…c02abacked No | 26c | 152$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +251.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…d35bbacked Yes | 53c | 140.01$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 52c | 137.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…361dbacked Yes | 27c | 106.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 42c | 106.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 104.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.95 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…0303backed Yes | 46c | 91.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…06cfbacked No | 54c | 88.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 36c | 87.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 47c | 85.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 41c | 77.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 26c | 72.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 40c | 67.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.49 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 75c | 66.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 64c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.53 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed64…6103backed Yes | 55c | 53.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ea…220cbacked No | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 74c | 49.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 57c | 44.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 113 | 56.6%64 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 58c | 42.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…cddbbacked No | 75c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 37c | 39.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 56c | 37.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 27c | 37.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 41c | 36.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…feb2backed Yes | 53c | 36.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 74c | 36.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Yes | 53c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.28per pick | 52cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 73c | 34.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 74c | 28.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…2193backed Yes | 72c | 27.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…3c33backed Yes | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe941…a496backed No | 48c | 25.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked No | 75c | 24.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Yes | 68c | 24.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked No | 53c | 22.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 56c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 56c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. 1. FC Nürnberg end in a draw?Yes won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.