Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nice beat Real Sociedad?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd564df2eb04e0d3af1d529edad01075d77aad9cdad1846b8e7e8021fe98a671c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked No | 62c | 6,126$3,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.06 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…af93backed Yes | 40c | 4,783$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,913.21 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 38c | 3,000$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,933$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.55 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked Yes | 41c | 1,955$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 65c | 1,469$951 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.9 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,122$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 38c | 1,111$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.18 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 59c | 999.95$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.98 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 38c | 861.54$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.03 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 39c | 835.28$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.76 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86cb…6c6dbacked No | 62c | 733.65$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…d13ebacked No | 62c | 629.14$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 35c | 600$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 62c | 583.63$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +105.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x479c…bcbcbacked No | 60c | 375$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 40c | 339.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked Yes | 41c | 282.93$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29ec…9467backed Yes | 39c | 279.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 41c | 242.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7143…f13cbacked No | 63c | 220$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb620…dd7abacked No | 62c | 199.98$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 59c | 144.27$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…8d55backed Yes | 40c | 124.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d4…f373backed No | 61c | 96.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 38c | 69.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…50b2backed Yes | 39c | 69.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked Yes | 38c | 68.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3a…170bbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nice beat Real Sociedad?this page
- Will Real Sociedad beat Nice?No won
- Will the match between Nice and Real Sociedad end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.