Premier League · resolved market
Will Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd586fbe952b8b41112db73506a776f3456df35c76a923fe5ae81f9f5e59afc3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 54c | 7,508$4,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,034.85 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 49c | 6,141$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,140.61 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 74c | 2,557$1,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.15 | 402 | 54.7%220 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb228…2734backed Yes | 32c | 2,000$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.6 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…69fbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,924$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27f2…702cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,910$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 25c | 1,800$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 346 | 43.9%152 W · 194 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…1698backed No | 75c | 1,800$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Yes | 13c | 1,183$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.33 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 75c | 700$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0692…10fbbacked Yes | 25c | 636$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 486.55$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.49 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 24c | 311.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.61 | 220 | 50%110 W · 110 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 23c | 236.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.35 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…3948backed No | 78c | 128.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…12a3backed Yes | 24c | 119.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.19 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83da…41f7backed No | 76c | 119.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a6…ee95backed No | 48c | 116$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x208d…362dbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…e948backed No | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f6…8afbbacked Yes | 24c | 68.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2450…947ebacked No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…668fbacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked No | 75c | 39.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16a2…f408backed No | 76c | 34.83$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a0…2c98backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…8861backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villa vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?this page
- Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-26?No won
- Will Villa win on 2024-10-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.