Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: USC Trojans (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5894162f36ed4a18e809617e0f515d59048a2acfde789b84599f5def61339de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon Ducksof USC Trojans, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Oregon Ducks | 51c | 19,920$10,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,760.81 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC Trojans | 49c | 10,484$5,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,127.2 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7a…15a4backed USC Trojans | 53c | 6,500$3,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,444.8 | 351 | 51.9%182 W · 169 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed USC Trojans | 50c | 3,418$1,716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,716.04 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed USC Trojans | 49c | 3,229$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.23 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 3,028$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.85 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed USC Trojans | 49c | 3,028$1,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.5 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Oregon Ducks | 51c | 3,005$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.25 | 616 | 52.8%325 W · 291 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oregon Ducks | 50c | 1,592$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.78 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed USC Trojans | 49c | 1,334$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.72 | 445 | 49.4%220 W · 225 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Oregon Ducks | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.61 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Oregon Ducks | 53c | 750.08$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.57 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed USC Trojans | 49c | 644.41$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.76 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed USC Trojans | 49c | 606.89$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked USC Trojans | 50c | 594.75$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.38 | 347 | 46.1%160 W · 187 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 503.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.33 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed USC Trojans | 49c | 391.06$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb1…8ec8backed Oregon Ducks | 51c | 273.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Oregon Ducks | 51c | 237.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.86 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed USC Trojans | 53c | 233.79$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.91 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Oregon Ducks | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed USC Trojans | 49c | 184.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.87 | 609 | 54.5%332 W · 277 L | +15.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Oregon Ducks | 48c | 164.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.08 | 1,296 | 45.1%584 W · 712 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Oregon Ducks | 52c | 164.31$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.04 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4c…cec8backed USC Trojans | 49c | 143.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…56f3backed USC Trojans | 49c | 133.56$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked USC Trojans | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6e…b1a7backed Oregon Ducks | 52c | 57.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 144 | 48.6%70 W · 74 L | -12.5wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…fb51backed Oregon Ducks | 47c | 55.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Oregon Ducks | 51c | 54.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.99 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed USC Trojans | 54c | 45.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 65 | 55.4%36 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Oregon Ducks | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed USC Trojans | 49c | 39.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Oregon Ducks | 49c | 25.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked USC Trojans | 50c | 23.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Oregon Ducks | 48c | 20.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC Trojans (-5.5)this page
- Oregon Ducks vs. USC TrojansOregon Ducks won
- Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans: O/U 147.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.