Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd591b06fde2dcfb7e9740f73ed1e620848467456a720899e2d5a74eb29156674
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,846
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,713$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 2c | 1,320$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 9c | 1,038$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…4c72backed Yes | 3c | 646.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 622.8$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 463.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 16c | 408.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 386.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 386.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 61c | 361.97$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.16 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 7c | 328.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 27c | 295.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 8c | 265.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 8c | 253$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 239.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 203.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 180.51$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 8c | 178.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 177.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 32c | 149.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 35c | 141.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 9c | 138.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 25c | 132.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 11c | 131.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 31c | 127.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3e…f290backed No | 79c | 126.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 50c | 116.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.87 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 113.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 45c | 110.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 9c | 107$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 10c | 101.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 48c | 97.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 76.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 27c | 74.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 71.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c48…44ebbacked Yes | 15c | 69.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Yes | 31c | 65.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 55.8%72 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 30c | 61.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 61.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1c…ebffbacked Yes | 34c | 60.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…cc98backed No | 68c | 58.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff7…dbfabacked No | 71c | 51.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 100 | 81%81 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 30c | 49.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 35c | 31.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 30.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 29.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…fa0cbacked No | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 60c | 23.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed Yes | 50c | 22.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 71c | 21.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 20.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…fd34backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…b063backed No | 73c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.