Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf566a62727c3473eb80cc24c4782cf4eca8b98ad43b772699a61a358da9af042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 6c | 401$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 240.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 239.1$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.3 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 32c | 188$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 179.05$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…9796backed Yes | 8c | 171.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 67c | 148$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 66c | 143.2$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.81 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 74c | 134.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 13c | 133.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 65c | 117.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 10c | 114.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 113.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 106.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 101.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 88.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 74.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 72.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 19c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 66c | 65.77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 64.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 25c | 59.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 57.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x967f…6990backed Yes | 35c | 56.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 23c | 52.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 50.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 29c | 44.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 64c | 39.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 40c | 37.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 36c | 36.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 30c | 33.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc566…f8d7backed No | 74c | 32.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 33c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3313…92adbacked Yes | 34c | 32.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed No | 66c | 30.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 67c | 29.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…e457backed No | 75c | 25.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 66c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 65c | 23.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 64c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 77c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 67c | 21.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 68c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 16.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 16.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C or below on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.