Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd597fbb51779f30ed43e81086c6bb38f9a581e6716d075b17f6a0e2e8b671243
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Yes | 48c | 621.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 528.25$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.47 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 170.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 40c | 118.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.19 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Yes | 61c | 96.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 36c | 78.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…540bbacked Yes | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a6…c0fabacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 63cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.