Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4a805d4a54a2b627ea0f0159be9fcadc68c590a1d488b996cd4296ee851fc35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 4,028$1,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 53c | 1,880$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.96 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Under | 4c | 1,600$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 60c | 1,359$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.63 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 50c | 1,055$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.9 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 39c | 809.8$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.49 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 59c | 771.84$456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.93 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…db98backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 46c | 398.77$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.8 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 49c | 387.76$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.76 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…08f1backed Under | 16c | 342.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 15c | 188.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc32e…203dbacked Over | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…a03dbacked Under | 17c | 140.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…035dbacked Over | 47c | 128.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.57 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 57c | 114.21$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e58…efdabacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca51…fca8backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…7796backed Under | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x79dd…9889backed Over | 70c | 59.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 45c | 55.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Over | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…64acbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67c5…cab7backed Over | 66c | 30.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…efefbacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…132abacked Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x423d…c621backed Over | 63c | 23.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…e273backed Over | 72c | 15.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Under won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.