Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1fc1d5e45f998a641fea7b9832f7c608ace4ca2d96aadd348e8cdb2449e4b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 14,523$8,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,331.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5873…f69abacked Over | 34c | 9,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Over | 64c | 8,553$5,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,485.75 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 63c | 3,271$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.04 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 47c | 2,916$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.62 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.98 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 62c | 1,492$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.91 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Over | 66c | 1,417$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.89 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 66c | 1,364$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 36c | 1,308$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.15 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 60c | 1,148$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.63 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 44c | 1,046$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.45 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 36c | 929.52$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.93 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 36c | 900.77$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.08 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 726.8$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.62 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 66c | 683.33$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 66c | 681.82$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c7…bd87backed Over | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Over | 59c | 499.66$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.8 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 35c | 372$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 36c | 312$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb07…0769backed Over | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +118.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 36c | 300$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 290.82$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.59 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…7365backed Under | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b5…7ba6backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 65c | 170.77$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceda…e67bbacked Over | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 32c | 145.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 165 | 42.4%70 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 29c | 112.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Under | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.11 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Under | 36c | 111$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.68 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…e265backed Over | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Over | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Under | 37c | 72.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Over | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 35c | 57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 61c | 49.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 35c | 49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x332d…7b0ebacked Over | 66c | 35.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d3…5ee5backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e29…c992backed Over | 65c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…64b6backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Over | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x174f…4804backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…03c8backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…2772backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5this page
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)Bayer 04 Leverkusen won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.