Valorant · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd59e3748a451d18a74f5cb51aab92156d697814d5ba4871ce548d54ad763a03f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, KRÜ Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4337…8882backed KRÜ Esports | 49c | 289.8$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 339 | 42.2%143 W · 196 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed KRÜ Esports | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed KRÜ Esports | 47c | 232.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.08 | 639 | 48%307 W · 332 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed 100 Thieves | 51c | 133.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 639 | 55.6%355 W · 284 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…cd25backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x591d…f4dfbacked 100 Thieves | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3c…9f22backed 100 Thieves | 53c | 118.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…221ebacked 100 Thieves | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed KRÜ Esports | 49c | 66.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 237 | 45.1%107 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc1…3f1cbacked KRÜ Esports | 49c | 66.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked 100 Thieves | 52c | 62.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e9…67b6backed KRÜ Esports | 48c | 62.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4a…59d9backed 100 Thieves | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-2.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+2.5)100 Thieves won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-3.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+3.5)KRÜ Esports won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+1.5)100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports - Map 1 Winner100 Thieves won
- Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner100 Thieves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.