TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, KRÜ Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$195,558
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,055

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $195,558 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf070…ac55backed KRÜ Esports50c35,540$17,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,839.324145.2%109 W · 132 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 100 Thieves52c13,632$7,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,531.3140945.7%187 W · 222 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked KRÜ Esports39c10,112$3,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.5126650.8%135 W · 131 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed 100 Thieves53c7,877$4,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,696.199844.9%44 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves54c4,979$2,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.3693148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed KRÜ Esports26c4,557$1,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,202.5619546.2%90 W · 105 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked 100 Thieves53c4,402$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.852737%10 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-34.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed 100 Thieves49c4,041$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,060.813956.4%22 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed 100 Thieves74c3,994$2,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.0454751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c1…2988backed 100 Thieves69c3,333$2,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.8725554.9%140 W · 115 L+13.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked 100 Thieves74c3,055$2,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.461,24749.6%619 W · 628 L-2.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked KRÜ Esports26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7807443.2%32 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked 100 Thieves79c2,748$2,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58133153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…9a83backed 100 Thieves56c2,260$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.1921454.2%116 W · 98 L+0.8wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed KRÜ Esports52c2,078$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.56643.9%29 W · 37 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed KRÜ Esports24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48039042.6%166 W · 224 L+19.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 100 Thieves52c1,961$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.965559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed 100 Thieves75c1,946$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486.8211747%55 W · 62 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed 100 Thieves76c1,891$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.754856.3%27 W · 21 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed 100 Thieves75c1,870$1,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.532047.8%153 W · 167 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed 100 Thieves50c1,745$867 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.853159.1%314 W · 217 L+41.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed KRÜ Esports25c1,623$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8714941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked 100 Thieves50c1,566$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.4168458.3%399 W · 285 L+56.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x421e…1e47backed KRÜ Esports22c1,447$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.143537.1%13 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed 100 Thieves46c1,366$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.9756357.9%326 W · 237 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked 100 Thieves47c1,265$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.9153355.3%295 W · 238 L+24.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed 100 Thieves51c1,250$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.0332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked KRÜ Esports30c1,245$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.5212143%52 W · 69 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed KRÜ Esports31c1,224$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.4526447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb7…1dd0backed KRÜ Esports40c1,102$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd92c…dd9abacked KRÜ Esports26c950.28$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.074146.3%19 W · 22 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked KRÜ Esports49c870$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.391,60137.5%600 W · 1,001 L-75.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed KRÜ Esports42c795.23$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.91,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked 100 Thieves62c739$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.021,35839%530 W · 828 L-57.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa936…5d19backed 100 Thieves77c712.56$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.6366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed KRÜ Esports20c657.39$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.4834356.9%195 W · 148 L+23.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed 100 Thieves70c562.74$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.2146347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed 100 Thieves70c553.66$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.0718056.1%101 W · 79 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed KRÜ Esports45c552.54$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24919656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed KRÜ Esports27c549$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7263955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed KRÜ Esports22c535.9$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.088646.5%40 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+22.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0181…9b5fbacked KRÜ Esports43c514.46$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.6627850%139 W · 139 L+21.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed 100 Thieves53c499.99$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.332556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed 100 Thieves75c466.67$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.6723463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed KRÜ Esports26c432.79$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5321457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eba…0f3abacked 100 Thieves67c415.62$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.0619751.8%102 W · 95 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0328…bd17backed KRÜ Esports51c395.04$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007456.8%42 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked 100 Thieves73c395$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3496245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed 100 Thieves65c381.76$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.7632152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed KRÜ Esports50c379.06$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4423836.1%86 W · 152 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 100 Thieves54c350.53$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.3794361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9a7…374abacked 100 Thieves61c346.66$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+22.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f8…e0b1backed KRÜ Esports25c328.11$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.033930.8%12 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed KRÜ Esports16c314$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9599846%459 W · 539 L-27.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked 100 Thieves73c302$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5420138.3%77 W · 124 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed 100 Thieves52c258.95$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8415358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked 100 Thieves56c258.16$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.8955637.6%209 W · 347 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 100 Thieves63c257.73$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.951,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked KRÜ Esports38c249.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.513540%14 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed KRÜ Esports40c247.57$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.1269722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed KRÜ Esports22c246.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2916950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed 100 Thieves44c244.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.1920160.2%121 W · 80 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5977…545ebacked 100 Thieves73c239.89$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfe6…4fadbacked 100 Thieves75c232.69$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.25062%31 W · 19 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked 100 Thieves60c224.66$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.4738950.6%197 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x483d…a099backed 100 Thieves71c222.69$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.633348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed 100 Thieves74c218$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6137545.6%171 W · 204 L-1.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a1d…3fa1backed 100 Thieves70c213.22$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.22862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7adb…221ebacked 100 Thieves67c208.62$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.971369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21fc…de4abacked KRÜ Esports24c200.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.151717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0bd…3338backed 100 Thieves50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ab6…4880backed 100 Thieves63c189.43$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4320547.8%98 W · 107 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb1…e1ffbacked KRÜ Esports51c185.76$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked 100 Thieves57c183.79$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.799737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a13…0512backed KRÜ Esports38c181.76$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.562236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-34.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed KRÜ Esports41c178.16$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.891,27632.1%409 W · 867 L-67.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked 100 Thieves67c172.07$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.671,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked KRÜ Esports39c171.1$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7370%0 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed KRÜ Esports25c169.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3156551.2%289 W · 276 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed 100 Thieves61c167.23$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2233346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd75a…d264backed 100 Thieves44c166.97$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.336930.4%21 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-33.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed 100 Thieves75c159.76$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.966570.8%46 W · 19 L+8.7wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+23.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed 100 Thieves68c155.38$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.386759.7%40 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd3d…e430backed 100 Thieves71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.855269.2%36 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4fb1…b109backed KRÜ Esports48c140$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6718254.4%99 W · 83 L+22.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked KRÜ Esports58c138.51$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.9824032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 100 Thieves59c127.87$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.4974642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87dd…a331backed KRÜ Esports63c126.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed 100 Thieves49c126.53$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.537646.1%35 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc566…f8d7backed 100 Thieves49c124.99$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.7414737.4%55 W · 92 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked KRÜ Esports30c120.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2284838.2%324 W · 524 L-50.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 100 Thieves59c119.99$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.651,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…4003backed KRÜ Esports30c119.06$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0628241.1%116 W · 166 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed 100 Thieves65c116.2$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6114852.7%78 W · 70 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5011…94b4backed KRÜ Esports21c116.08$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.389737.1%36 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade6…c465backed 100 Thieves62c111.42$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.6165347.3%309 W · 344 L-18.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c6c…b1d2backed KRÜ Esports43c107.39$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.252119%4 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-62.5%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked KRÜ Esports43c90.89$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9821153.6%113 W · 98 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe660…514fbacked 100 Thieves36c88.89$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.892250%11 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed 100 Thieves58c86.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.192860.7%17 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+28.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.