TailMyPicks

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Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: 100 Thieves vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
100 Thievesof 100 Thieves, KRÜ Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$173,319
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$187,303

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,319 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd4fe…c916backed 100 Thieves74c32,981$24,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,642.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed KRÜ Esports26c26,802$6,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,960.565429.6%16 W · 38 L-9.2wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-42%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked 100 Thieves72c20,008$14,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,511.2428955.7%161 W · 128 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9898…2e28backed 100 Thieves73c16,723$12,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,515.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+72.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed 100 Thieves72c14,344$10,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,074.8910455.8%58 W · 46 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf438…9559backed KRÜ Esports27c13,555$3,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,659.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+31.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed KRÜ Esports27c11,111$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.9612951.2%66 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed KRÜ Esports27c10,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7006038.3%23 W · 37 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed KRÜ Esports10c5,439$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.9554751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed KRÜ Esports27c4,669$1,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,260.6551749.5%256 W · 261 L-2.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed 100 Thieves79c3,506$2,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$728.893148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed KRÜ Esports21c3,354$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.7532462.7%203 W · 121 L+31.7wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x23d1…52c5backed KRÜ Esports28c3,326$931 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked 100 Thieves70c3,324$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.561957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed KRÜ Esports12c3,300$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40522344.4%99 W · 124 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5d8…a00bbacked KRÜ Esports29c3,045$883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.05812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-77.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb82…f6babacked KRÜ Esports27c3,006$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.611741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfda…5504backed 100 Thieves60c3,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20016950.9%86 W · 83 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed KRÜ Esports27c2,750$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$742.541734.8%145 W · 272 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked 100 Thieves79c2,247$1,765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.6565559.4%389 W · 266 L+50.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed KRÜ Esports16c2,169$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.7854342.4%230 W · 313 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked KRÜ Esports29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58028743.2%124 W · 163 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d72…02d0backed KRÜ Esports24c1,750$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4201520%3 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65e6…42dcbacked KRÜ Esports27c1,530$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.89737.1%36 W · 61 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad84…dcf1backed KRÜ Esports30c1,508$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.33633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6326…6329backed KRÜ Esports29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9911843.2%51 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed KRÜ Esports13c1,368$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.6793049.4%459 W · 471 L-0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed KRÜ Esports27c1,302$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.5326447.3%125 W · 139 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked KRÜ Esports28c1,164$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.927234.7%25 W · 47 L-11.0wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-33.8%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed 100 Thieves72c1,114$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.4125660.9%156 W · 100 L+22.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+16.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed 100 Thieves72c1,101$797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.85962.7%37 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed KRÜ Esports30c1,000$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29563955.6%355 W · 284 L+1.9wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked KRÜ Esports28c998.98$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7155152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked KRÜ Esports31c945.28$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.0426450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4980…5709backed KRÜ Esports21c910.98$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.4332245.7%147 W · 175 L+52.2wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+40.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed KRÜ Esports31c881.29$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.214941.6%62 W · 87 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked 100 Thieves72c856.95$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.944161%25 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed KRÜ Esports28c820$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.521457%122 W · 92 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed 100 Thieves74c804.55$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.184037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-35%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked KRÜ Esports28c769.92$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3524551%125 W · 120 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed 100 Thieves73c729.01$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.8352155.5%289 W · 232 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked KRÜ Esports21c714$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.129040%36 W · 54 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b83…ef1dbacked KRÜ Esports11c668.53$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-74.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked KRÜ Esports27c641.43$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.625843%111 W · 147 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed 100 Thieves73c616.44$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.444271.4%30 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed 100 Thieves73c601$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.2732152.6%169 W · 152 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed KRÜ Esports28c599.67$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.9127145%122 W · 149 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2418…66c8backed KRÜ Esports27c514.57$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9318457.1%105 W · 79 L+11.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed KRÜ Esports28c500$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4713661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed KRÜ Esports28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1401850%9 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bfb…8beabacked KRÜ Esports27c499.6$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.893060%18 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1245…e0afbacked KRÜ Esports28c480.5$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.54933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcecf…e84fbacked KRÜ Esports28c446.43$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked 100 Thieves75c432$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10833153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed KRÜ Esports28c426$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.282634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf71e…917bbacked 100 Thieves73c410.96$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.966867.6%46 W · 22 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed KRÜ Esports25c401.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.294337.2%16 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked 100 Thieves75c360.17$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0494361.2%577 W · 366 L+58.2wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked 100 Thieves75c358.44$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.0128143.4%122 W · 159 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed 100 Thieves70c354.36$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.3125556.1%143 W · 112 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked KRÜ Esports13c352$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0316420.1%33 W · 131 L-20.1wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-49.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbb69…cdf0backed KRÜ Esports28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+64.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed KRÜ Esports26c336.06$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.61338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed 100 Thieves73c315.07$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.0719847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked KRÜ Esports29c293.77$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6512550.4%63 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed KRÜ Esports25c289.19$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.942035%7 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed KRÜ Esports7c280.74$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5869722.8%159 W · 538 L-94.4wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed 100 Thieves76c273.61$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.582441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb1…e1ffbacked KRÜ Esports16c267.06$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed KRÜ Esports14c253.14$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9149255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb71…4371backed KRÜ Esports17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.52556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x833c…42b4backed KRÜ Esports13c236$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.685927.1%16 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked 100 Thieves72c230$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.524032.1%77 W · 163 L-18.7wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed KRÜ Esports12c219.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked 100 Thieves79c219.11$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.4596245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked KRÜ Esports28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5734443.3%149 W · 195 L-14.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed KRÜ Esports18c184.5$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.831,74646.2%806 W · 940 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb14c…7355backed KRÜ Esports28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3adf…9c7bbacked 100 Thieves77c175.8$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.861573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked KRÜ Esports20c175.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.761,60845.2%727 W · 881 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed KRÜ Esports29c174.87$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2528252.5%148 W · 134 L-0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed 100 Thieves75c170$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.58481%68 W · 16 L+9.9wins+0.12per pick69cpaid+17.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x57e6…9622backed 100 Thieves74c167$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.422955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6383…6e28backed KRÜ Esports25c164.48$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.72650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+44.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd3d…e430backed 100 Thieves73c164.38$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.385269.2%36 W · 16 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed KRÜ Esports25c162.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.722133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e0…708fbacked KRÜ Esports34c154.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.83946.2%18 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed KRÜ Esports10c142.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2146347.1%218 W · 245 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked KRÜ Esports21c140$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.281,30943.8%573 W · 736 L-44.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked KRÜ Esports27c122.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.088240.2%33 W · 49 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x026b…8804backed 100 Thieves71c110.58$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5415358.8%90 W · 63 L+14.7wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x14b7…aab1backed KRÜ Esports28c109.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.273246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x202b…bd32backed KRÜ Esports28c107.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305954.2%32 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed KRÜ Esports28c106.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.882842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked KRÜ Esports30c105.07$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.526959.4%41 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3555…208ebacked 100 Thieves71c103.21$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.126666.7%44 W · 22 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed KRÜ Esports19c100$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1919656.6%111 W · 85 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed 100 Thieves72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2816142.9%69 W · 92 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked 100 Thieves72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7833753.1%179 W · 158 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c6b…b949backed KRÜ Esports22c98.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.