Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5a4ec1e03c494780bdfcb03c4d50d660e9dd406398300bb14031b295bf1b2db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 3,103$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.91 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 10c | 1,269$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,259$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 6c | 1,114$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 7c | 1,113$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 982.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 9c | 904.49$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…932abacked Yes | 6c | 743.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 4c | 677.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…abcebacked Yes | 9c | 611.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.45 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 5c | 569.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 4c | 563.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 488.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafb7…e027backed Yes | 9c | 442$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 438.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 3c | 422.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…3e99backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 3c | 387.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 4c | 383.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 4c | 377.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 375.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.63 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 7c | 358.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 7c | 341.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…9d10backed Yes | 7c | 301.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 8c | 250.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 7c | 243.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 7c | 242.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 6c | 220.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacdd…69a1backed Yes | 8c | 217.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 25c | 198.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 8c | 195.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 9c | 188.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 186.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 9c | 172.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…fb64backed Yes | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 156.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 8c | 135$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 15c | 119.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…1a9bbacked Yes | 17c | 113.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 14c | 98.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…7573backed Yes | 13c | 84.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd984…59c8backed Yes | 15c | 79.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes | 18c | 75.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 38°C on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 42°C or higher on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.