Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5bd2f0de52c631850b4c8869eab4402afee7ef55545055becda92fe65f23b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,517
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,517 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 18c | 1,597$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.42 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 1,059$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 27c | 825.83$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 735.86$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 6c | 557.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 303 | 44.9%136 W · 167 L | +16.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…a74cbacked Yes | 35c | 535.19$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 20c | 500.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 348.76$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.88 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 20c | 329.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 32c | 297.86$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 163 | 25.8%42 W · 121 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 295.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 74c | 257.26$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.66 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 256.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 33c | 237.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 14c | 236.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 79c | 203.02$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 198.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 12c | 192$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 70c | 172.62$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 74c | 169.58$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 18c | 162.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 135.15$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 133.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 30c | 133.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 17c | 110.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 67c | 103.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…858bbacked No | 69c | 102.94$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 99.05$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 69c | 96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 73c | 84.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed Yes | 29c | 80.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 30c | 70.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 17c | 69.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 526 | 50.2%264 W · 262 L | +30.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 23c | 68.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 29c | 61.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 30c | 59.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 77c | 57.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 44.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 43.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 28c | 38.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 36.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 35.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 138 | 72.5%100 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414a…253ebacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 72c | 24.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 68c | 22.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…3aebbacked No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +26%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 269 | 60.2%162 W · 107 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 70c | 15.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.