Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0fccb5c47d9fc83424a90ab21d75265cf661b415231b83e15c13e89fa69129d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 54c | 1,294$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.93 | 668 | 43.4%290 W · 378 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 1,188$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.91 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 50c | 1,005$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.07 | 263 | 66.9%176 W · 87 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 15c | 969.48$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…4d47backed No | 2c | 944.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 839.15$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.98 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 15c | 825.2$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 378 | 56.3%213 W · 165 L | +31.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 31c | 626.95$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 59 | 84.7%50 W · 9 L | +11.2wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 608.92$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.92 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 43c | 507.66$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.56 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked No | 4c | 491.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Yes | 64c | 436.17$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.68 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 420.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.56 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 365.49$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 57c | 348.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.72 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 42c | 343.57$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.04 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 43c | 317.25$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 632 | 21.8%138 W · 494 L | -33.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 314.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.72 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 313.05$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.27 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 61c | 300.75$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.29 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 300.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 294.1$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.68 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 268.54$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 47c | 257.98$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 29c | 249$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.23 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 59c | 235.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 10c | 232.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 17c | 231.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 65c | 230.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…47a3backed No | 9c | 215.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 28c | 214.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.21 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 202.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 189.14$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 577 | 57.7%333 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 27c | 186.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 260 | 61.5%160 W · 100 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 176.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 60c | 169.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 159.92$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 25c | 144.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 10c | 139.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 30c | 132.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 29c | 128.49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 60c | 113.3$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 481 | 40.3%194 W · 287 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 45c | 111$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.82 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 25c | 110.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 1,244 | 61.7%767 W · 477 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed No | 9c | 109.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 55c | 108.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 24c | 95.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 42c | 92.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 571 | 43.4%248 W · 323 L | -32.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 90.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 40c | 85.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 53c | 82.87$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 74c | 81.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 691 | 50.5%349 W · 342 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 80.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked No | 23c | 79.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 16c | 79.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 32c | 68.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 46c | 64.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 60.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 30c | 58.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 52c | 56.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 25c | 55.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 54.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 54.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 54.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 51.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 49c | 50.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 26c | 50.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…c094backed No | 57c | 48.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 46c | 46.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 35c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,367 | 69.2%946 W · 421 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…18efbacked No | 25c | 41.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,627 | 58.3%2,696 W · 1,931 L | -114.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff6…b95dbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 58c | 39.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 38c | 39.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 27c | 39.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 42c | 39.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…3e30backed Yes | 57c | 36.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -14.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 35.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d5…7227backed Yes | 62c | 33.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 33.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 44c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 346 | 67.6%234 W · 112 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 45c | 32.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked Yes | 53c | 31.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 51c | 30.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 58c | 30.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 34c | 29.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 504 | 62.3%314 W · 190 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.