Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e4b7be2d9fd8fb5e408087025971892df8b821e85e91a5daccecf6ae1dd4640
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 6c | 1,838$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 285 | 40.4%115 W · 170 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 3c | 1,658$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 862 | 30.7%265 W · 597 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 27c | 1,315$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 893.62$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.36 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 726.9$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 2,299 | 17.8%409 W · 1,890 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 705.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.15 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 21c | 555.26$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 507.27$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.28 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 77c | 425.44$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 892 | 59.8%533 W · 359 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…8700backed Yes | 9c | 301.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…43cebacked Yes | 4c | 285.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 255.93$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 28c | 254$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 16c | 235.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 214.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 71c | 173.1$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.86 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…5645backed No | 71c | 159.78$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed Yes | 9c | 125.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 69c | 115$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 66c | 109$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 181 | 66.9%121 W · 60 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 198 | 31.8%63 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 90.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 76c | 85.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…63a4backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 62c | 51.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 46.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 45.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3,835 | 61.1%2,345 W · 1,490 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 4,313 | 53.6%2,311 W · 2,002 L | +158.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 32c | 44.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 44.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 73c | 41.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 68c | 38.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 75c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 28c | 36.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,805 | 50.4%910 W · 895 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 32.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 72c | 32.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 660 | 67.4%445 W · 215 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…673fbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 70c | 27.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 26.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 20.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked No | 78c | 18.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…fd46backed No | 69c | 17.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 16.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.