Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5bf0d2bf54948a2309b9e74225455ccdb7331dc5cc675f88a4fbf093c34eedc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,925
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,925 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26eb…22d0backed Yes | 41c | 2,186$889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.3 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 1,069$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.19 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 47c | 1,052$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.57 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 37c | 805.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.27 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6006…13afbacked Yes | 37c | 405.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.41 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa44a…88ecbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 63c | 222.37$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.37 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 57c | 191$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 43c | 191$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 57c | 173.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 44c | 161.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.17 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 63c | 154.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 63c | 149.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.89 | 153 | 58.8%90 W · 63 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 45c | 144$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 46c | 140.88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…746bbacked Yes | 38c | 99.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 62c | 96.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 63c | 96.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 40c | 88.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 64c | 87.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 59c | 86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 41c | 71.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 67c | 63.28$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 189 | 52.9%100 W · 89 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 59c | 56$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 41c | 56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1521…ae21backed No | 57c | 52.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed No | 61c | 50.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed No | 61c | 49.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 62c | 40.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…7685backed No | 60c | 38.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Yes | 44c | 30.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7b…12d8backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 61cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 61c | 27.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 61c | 27.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked No | 62c | 26.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed No | 64c | 26.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…1734backed No | 64c | 18.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed No | 63c | 17.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked No | 60c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…37e6backed No | 60c | 17.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…c707backed No | 62c | 16.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1d…2e6abacked No | 65c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 64c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 626 | 52.6%329 W · 297 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-04-04?this page
- Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Cerezo Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.