South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-07?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5caa072bbd53e882b0ead7d372067b23f43cde83b243bb14dacc80c4844d88a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 46c | 8,884$4,066 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,817.52 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…0c2ebacked No | 47c | 6,809$3,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 52c | 5,542$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.46 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 61c | 4,968$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.19 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…09b7backed Yes | 55c | 4,148$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,855.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d59…778dbacked No | 47c | 3,191$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 53c | 2,733$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.65 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 49c | 1,994$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.5 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 57c | 923.44$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.06 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 46c | 777.79$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.14 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…2638backed No | 43c | 613.95$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 32c | 531.25$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3b…6ba5backed No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 51c | 320.26$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.38 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed No | 46c | 295.98$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.15 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 54c | 277.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed No | 30c | 238.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.66 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 41c | 238.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.84 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0613…4d1cbacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 53c | 169.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.81 | 123 | 31.7%39 W · 84 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…479dbacked Yes | 55c | 150.42$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 44c | 137.63$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.78 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed No | 42c | 126.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…96dbbacked Yes | 58c | 119.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…fd73backed Yes | 55c | 112.73$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 86 | 68.6%59 W · 27 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 42c | 82.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 398 | 53%211 W · 187 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 71c | 82.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x365e…4f29backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadd2…350cbacked No | 43c | 71.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 46c | 70.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426a…128bbacked Yes | 41c | 66.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 38c | 65.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6211…490cbacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7f…91ebbacked Yes | 55c | 58.87$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 46c | 58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d70…e9b0backed Yes | 58c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…5480backed No | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…2318backed Yes | 55c | 48.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Yes | 52c | 41.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ab…44dfbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…0755backed Yes | 58c | 34.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3980…139ebacked Yes | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…9d56backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c3…3c3fbacked Yes | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…710fbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-12-07?this page
- Will EC Bahia win on 2025-12-07?No won
- Will Fluminense FC vs. EC Bahia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.