MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cc0cf23cc44bf638808997aaa1f6adb0b04f050acbf54fbb4dd49a0c1c44e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 61c | 4,641$2,837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.14 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 31c | 3,675$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,535.6 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 2,387$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,647.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 38c | 2,362$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,464.25 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Under | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 40c | 1,500$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.8 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 69c | 895.09$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.61 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaff…5cb1backed Under | 2c | 560.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 33c | 540.79$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.13 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 38c | 479.03$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Under | 63c | 476.27$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 66c | 405.29$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.56 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 4c | 400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d1fabacked Over | 34c | 290$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…1f23backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 37c | 211.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.82 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 69c | 111.27$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…52c0backed Under | 65c | 99.53$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Under | 68c | 75.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e60…536bbacked Under | 62c | 52.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 69c | 22.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 62c | 20.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.