MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x035046f0a5b9eabcb60128ffc20a7ee2ed19776caf955d7d9c10b3163f2d65cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b6e…9486backed Yes | 42c | 2,418$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.74 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…f636backed No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.99 | 233 | 57.9%135 W · 98 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Yes | 41c | 1,300$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.83 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…409bbacked Yes | 42c | 935$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 58c | 862$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.04 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Yes | 40c | 629.47$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.49 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 537.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.22 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 60c | 528.62$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.62 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed No | 59c | 510.46$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.46 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Yes | 44c | 510$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.53 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 5c | 400$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…bc1cbacked No | 60c | 378.4$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 54c | 371$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.5 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 299.35$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 59c | 208.65$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.51 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 202.51$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 58c | 192.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.44 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 53c | 186.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedfa…fd66backed No | 58c | 180.89$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 58c | 175$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3d…9351backed No | 58c | 171.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 55c | 136.81$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed No | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Yes | 45c | 93.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad8…5004backed No | 57c | 91.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 188 | 55.3%104 W · 84 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc138…e79dbacked Yes | 43c | 86.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…b524backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 197 | 54.8%108 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Yes | 39c | 64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b7…43bbbacked Yes | 41c | 59.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Yes | 43c | 57.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…cae1backed Yes | 43c | 57.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 41c | 53.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 340 | 44.4%151 W · 189 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked No | 59c | 53.03$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 57c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 41c | 41.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Yes | 42c | 29.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | -13.5wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…2f7ebacked No | 56c | 26.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d74…96b8backed No | 61c | 18.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7884…1fb0backed No | 59c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.