MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ecdaf5b44c29bc30ce3e40e4b1f73570d0a2cb07e0ac0d718b1d9b6c38a879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 31,253$20,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,940.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 29,619$10,367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,366.56 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Seattle Mariners | 31c | 1,200$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.97 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 970.06$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.5 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 966.7$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.01 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 953.55$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.8 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Seattle Mariners | 29c | 803.92$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.14 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 735$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 721$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 498.88$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.53 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 446$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Seattle Mariners | 8c | 423.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 400$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Seattle Mariners | 9c | 356.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants | 65c | 296$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 222.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 199.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Seattle Mariners | 37c | 191.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 170.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed San Francisco Giants | 61c | 162.23$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 160.5$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Francisco Giants | 64c | 145.56$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 139.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 125.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…2d37backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 119$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8675…725dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 110.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 104.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 101.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 98.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4089…b372backed San Francisco Giants | 63c | 96.83$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed San Francisco Giants | 56c | 93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Seattle Mariners | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3e…d412backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 175 | 57.1%100 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Seattle Mariners | 28c | 54.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Seattle Mariners | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 46.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7a…2c0abacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked San Francisco Giants | 59c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 42.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked San Francisco Giants | 66c | 39.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58c…3a5cbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 37.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfe…4a26backed San Francisco Giants | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked San Francisco Giants | 57c | 34.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 26.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked San Francisco Giants | 58c | 24.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3551…a581backed San Francisco Giants | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed San Francisco Giants | 59c | 21.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 20.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed San Francisco Giants | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 639 | 54.5%348 W · 291 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…8e0cbacked San Francisco Giants | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed San Francisco Giants | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 392 | 50.3%197 W · 195 L | +18.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 14.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Seattle Mariners won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersSan Francisco Giants won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.