NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6241a59a9dec9db7907d649fdbcdc45c827b5b0d13bdb261f834d3c4aa4c589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,570
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,570 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Kings | 47c | 10,550$4,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,958.45 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Kings | 48c | 10,328$4,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,957.39 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Timberwolves | 53c | 9,070$4,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,262.85 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 48c | 3,500$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 52c | 1,700$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.26 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf0…251cbacked Kings | 46c | 1,525$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.55 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 48c | 1,523$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.96 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Timberwolves | 52c | 950$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 52c | 950$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.91 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 712.19$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.61 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e2…5ec0backed Timberwolves | 54c | 648.15$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.15 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 80c | 427$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Kings | 20c | 427$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 48c | 388$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 47c | 362.5$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.92 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Timberwolves | 52c | 130.77$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Timberwolves | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Timberwolves | 52c | 90.7$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…32c2backed Timberwolves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Timberwolves | 54c | 85.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Kings | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Timberwolves | 48c | 48.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Kings | 49c | 33.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd5…f95ebacked Timberwolves | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.