NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb4d30f8931cbc17ca90e3f71e93f3fa0a35e9bf8af1d8d7f5561251382d9aa5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 4,682$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 4,334$2,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,097.01 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 51c | 1,696$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.02 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Over | 52c | 1,115$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Over | 50c | 1,104$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.3 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Under | 46c | 883.41$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.37 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Over | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.56 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 48c | 211.54$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 54c | 151$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.46 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Under | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 364 | 23.4%85 W · 279 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ac…13d8backed Under | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 82.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…4ee7backed Over | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 64cpaid | -37%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Over | 52c | 44.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 37.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c99…2c2abacked Under | 47c | 34.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 49c | 32.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…d21cbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 59.1%52 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 47c | 28.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…7a7dbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.