NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefbf0878b7ebcd9c89d0637d782b43d239b3a578905b01eefd716f50761448fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Kings | 51c | 24,453$12,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,448.25 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Timberwolves | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,199.92 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Timberwolves | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 51c | 13,980$7,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,129.98 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Timberwolves | 49c | 13,940$6,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,109.16 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 50c | 8,170$4,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,113.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Timberwolves | 49c | 8,000$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,080 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Kings | 52c | 3,467$1,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,803.09 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…ed47backed Kings | 51c | 2,512$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281 | 76 | 52.6%40 W · 36 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,324$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.7 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Timberwolves | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Kings | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Kings | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa1…fd2dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 1,666$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a0…6b5abacked Kings | 51c | 1,666$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.66 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,481$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.73 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 48c | 1,462$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.53 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kings | 51c | 1,346$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.46 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 50c | 1,177$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.26 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Kings | 50c | 1,174$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Kings | 50c | 1,123$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.67 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Timberwolves | 48c | 1,118$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Kings | 54c | 1,096$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kings | 52c | 985.42$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.42 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…b4b5backed Kings | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 734$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.68 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Kings | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb453…d895backed Kings | 50c | 408$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Kings | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27df…e67cbacked Kings | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Kings | 23c | 340$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…b9f8backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -6.3wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Kings | 53c | 174$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings | 50c | 145$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc9…30c1backed Kings | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 80.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…597ebacked Kings | 51c | 78.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 63.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Kings | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e4…92bbbacked Kings | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537b…a62fbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…a69fbacked Kings | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Kings | 43c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Kings | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…fdeebacked Kings | 54c | 38.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Timberwolves | 59c | 33.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…94a4backed Kings | 51c | 31.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Kings | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Kings | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Timberwolves | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 210 | 62.9%132 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…a43fbacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 98 | 45.9%45 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. KingsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 238.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.