TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Kings: O/U 235.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,520
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,520 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd0b4…fed6backed Over51c15,905$8,112 inWon+$7,793.6820055%110 W · 90 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under49c14,523$7,091 inLost-$7,091.369,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Under46c3,491$1,621 inLost-$1,621.322,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under49c2,168$1,062 inLost-$1,062.321,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over51c1,000$510 inWon+$4903,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over51c1,000$510 inWon+$4902,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Over53c814.64$432 inWon+$382.6841848.3%202 W · 216 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Over58c536$308 inWon+$227.7385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b9…1d44backed Under46c250$115 inLost-$11510246.1%47 W · 55 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x71ab…4adcbacked Over50c200.62$101 inWon+$99.62450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Over58c190$110 inWon+$79.833950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Over50c160$79 inWon+$80.824835.1%87 W · 161 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Under50c158$79 inLost-$79.1280148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over57c142$81 inWon+$61.066,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad7c…43a5backed Over58c121.41$70 inWon+$50.994969.4%34 W · 15 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1800…cc97backed Under51c113.73$58 inLost-$58475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+48.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over58c109.19$63 inWon+$45.866259.7%37 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Over58c100$58 inWon+$4270153.5%375 W · 326 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x231e…d081backed Under51c82.35$42 inLost-$4250%0 W · 5 L-2.3wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Under50c58$29 inLost-$292,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Under49c40.82$20 inLost-$2035851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…d0e3backed Under45c33.33$15 inLost-$151361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd6…c081backed Over55c26.42$15 inWon+$11.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefd5…f95ebacked Under50c22$11 inLost-$111050%5 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10dd…093fbacked Under50c20$10 inLost-$10728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.