CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd66da8537a5c4182156a0e949ee825b89362b76afaab8915bc8e8ea02d1f745b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Astralis, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Astralis | 36c | 3,376$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.93 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed paiN | 64c | 2,711$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.23 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…2687backed paiN | 64c | 1,021$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.56 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc818…1da3backed paiN | 66c | 909.24$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.24 | 89 | 25.8%23 W · 66 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed paiN | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.27 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +7.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked paiN | 63c | 712.54$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.64 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed paiN | 67c | 710$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 265 | 49.1%130 W · 135 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Astralis | 37c | 697.35$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.07 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked paiN | 67c | 620.94$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.91 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed paiN | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Astralis | 37c | 497.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.19 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Astralis | 37c | 478.38$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked paiN | 64c | 456.63$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.39 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | -13.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked paiN | 67c | 453.08$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.52 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Astralis | 36c | 284.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked paiN | 64c | 234.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed paiN | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 323 | 44.3%143 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…94f1backed paiN | 64c | 108$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed paiN | 65c | 49.89$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012b…7c42backed Astralis | 37c | 47.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed paiN | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed paiN | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed paiN | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked paiN | 67c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 746 | 53.5%399 W · 347 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked paiN | 67c | 17.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 154 | 69.5%107 W · 47 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked paiN | 63c | 16.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed paiN | 67c | 16.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 418 | 53.6%224 W · 194 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed paiN | 68c | 16.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed paiN | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 207 | 42.5%88 W · 119 L | -17.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)paiN won
- Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)Astralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.