TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Astralisof paiN, Astralis
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,679,275
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,934,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,679,275 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 895 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d20…a165backed paiN39c401,628$155,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155,865.226160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+23.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Astralis58c274,325$157,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,444.5525355.7%141 W · 112 L+19.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d6d…2654backed Astralis56c116,121$65,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,762.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5291…d4b6backed paiN42c72,752$30,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,288.561963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…eb43backed Astralis58c61,818$35,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,968.53666.7%24 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+24.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked paiN42c50,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,00016443.9%72 W · 92 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe40e…9770backed paiN42c50,000$21,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,999.9317951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Astralis63c49,967$31,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,279.641,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1610…ae49backed Astralis48c48,622$23,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,369.4113548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20b8…aa04backed paiN42c45,370$19,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,055.420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Astralis57c32,856$18,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,128.0333343.8%146 W · 187 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ea2…e8e5backed paiN42c32,304$13,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,679.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed paiN66c32,252$21,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,286.0741649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Astralis56c28,500$15,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,54013043.1%56 W · 74 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b1d…76a0backed Astralis79c25,716$20,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,406.53966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Astralis73c24,899$18,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,742.11,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Astralis58c23,488$13,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,887.875,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01e6…e7e0backed Astralis59c22,263$13,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,140.6817062.9%107 W · 63 L+7.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Astralis75c21,660$16,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,390.0287047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed paiN43c21,293$9,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,255.2517643.2%76 W · 100 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked paiN46c20,155$9,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,217.6736453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf177…5f6abacked Astralis47c18,810$8,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000.132060%12 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+25.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x934a…a684backed paiN55c18,264$9,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,958.362147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed paiN46c17,951$8,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,257.3519055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed Astralis54c17,583$9,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,041.142142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…509bbacked Astralis59c16,000$9,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,64019757.4%113 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Astralis59c15,555$9,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,377.556152.5%32 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0063…2dd2backed Astralis69c15,191$10,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,756.0640264.7%260 W · 142 L+49.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed paiN42c15,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,30010749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Astralis57c14,295$8,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,086.6413244.7%59 W · 73 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Astralis57c13,690$7,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,954.871,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc67f…2372backed Astralis75c12,734$9,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,232.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Astralis58c12,413$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,213.5121048.1%101 W · 109 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Astralis58c12,000$6,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,079.9736152.6%190 W · 171 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Astralis55c11,809$6,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,314.1675652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed paiN43c11,760$5,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,056.872944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Astralis57c11,600$6,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,98830340.3%122 W · 181 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6902…b4cabacked paiN44c11,420$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00025751.8%133 W · 124 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed paiN43c11,305$4,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,861.3617240.7%70 W · 102 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a6e…b5bcbacked paiN45c11,000$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.962744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked paiN50c10,539$5,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,269.627047.1%33 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed paiN42c10,531$4,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,423.0722849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed paiN43c10,480$4,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,506.242227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed paiN25c10,423$2,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,632.532,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x413f…47f3backed paiN47c10,000$4,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,743.811963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6b3…9441backed paiN47c9,980$4,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,665.4811149.5%55 W · 56 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2d0…7bbfbacked paiN50c8,838$4,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,459.336036.7%22 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed paiN55c8,713$4,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,763.6417737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked paiN42c8,333$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50022354.7%122 W · 101 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Astralis54c8,185$4,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,764.886454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked paiN40c8,132$3,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,232.611,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Astralis58c8,000$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,359.9846149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed paiN65c7,000$4,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,549.9921854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda49…152ebacked paiN42c6,835$2,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,870.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ac…a2c9backed paiN65c6,082$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,953.35455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Astralis54c6,000$3,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,76071645.9%329 W · 387 L-3.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a96…3087backed paiN50c5,975$2,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,970.7817949.7%89 W · 90 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9e64…89c3backed Astralis34c5,893$2,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,889.554235.7%15 W · 27 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Astralis78c5,830$4,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.161,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed paiN33c5,822$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,93518837.2%70 W · 118 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Astralis54c5,781$3,103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,677.841,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Astralis68c5,717$3,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,811.8888746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Astralis35c5,714$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,714.2920448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed paiN59c5,691$3,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3497943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed paiN23c5,682$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.345240.4%21 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f6…f28dbacked paiN1c5,533$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Astralis59c5,511$3,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.0827452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Astralis58c5,475$3,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,319.564852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Astralis57c5,263$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,263.1632348.9%158 W · 165 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked paiN20c5,209$1,068 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,067.6340137.2%149 W · 252 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed paiN44c5,028$2,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.311747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Astralis56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20023145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bbb…0ee6backed paiN49c5,000$2,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Astralis57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.9937946.4%176 W · 203 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Astralis56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.9860248.7%293 W · 309 L+0.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked paiN41c4,965$2,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,01410635.8%38 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Astralis51c4,941$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,420.953745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40b9…b002backed paiN67c4,823$3,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,215.15459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Astralis55c4,807$2,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.3410946.8%51 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Astralis62c4,730$2,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.941,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ac…7deebacked Astralis35c4,595$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,995.9343152.9%228 W · 203 L+26.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed paiN40c4,472$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,788.757157.7%41 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked paiN43c4,425$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,902.9635940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Astralis73c4,042$2,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.2969445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…12babacked Astralis34c4,009$1,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,645.613129%9 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed paiN43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,72021060%126 W · 84 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Astralis46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1601361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Astralis58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,68026952.8%142 W · 127 L+12.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb03a…ceddbacked paiN44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7605442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Astralis54c4,000$2,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.9978639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked Astralis59c3,858$2,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,581.855867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed Astralis34c3,674$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,425.0355043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0e6…23c2backed paiN21c3,660$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.315563.6%35 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked paiN37c3,633$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.9366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd723…25bfbacked paiN42c3,571$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5005248.1%25 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed paiN43c3,501$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.4211434.2%39 W · 75 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Astralis69c3,441$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,078.052,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed97…8932backed Astralis58c3,347$1,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.633100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Astralis57c3,310$1,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.3912055%66 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ff5…6afbbacked paiN40c3,250$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.493125.8%8 W · 23 L-5.1wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-45.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.