CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85ca9c55b9818bd0c307a776a705313700ad0588477844978187d733ee4aafb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- paiNof Astralis, paiN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,805
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,805 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9897…c033backed paiN | 66c | 2,519$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.38 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Astralis | 34c | 2,443$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.48 | 274 | 52.9%145 W · 129 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Astralis | 33c | 1,849$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.47 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69b1…2687backed Astralis | 31c | 1,812$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.59 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed paiN | 69c | 1,812$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.59 | 258 | 45.7%118 W · 140 L | -18.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…77c4backed paiN | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.98 | 188 | 46.3%87 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed paiN | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked paiN | 67c | 999$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.67 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed paiN | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Astralis | 32c | 636.37$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.64 | 1,033 | 53.2%550 W · 483 L | +64.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Astralis | 32c | 610$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Astralis | 33c | 554.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.05 | 2,009 | 53.9%1,082 W · 927 L | +7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Astralis | 27c | 523.32$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 2,434 | 44.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L | -64.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed paiN | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Astralis | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Astralis | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked paiN | 72c | 498.35$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.47 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Astralis | 34c | 391.18$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Astralis | 31c | 362.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed paiN | 64c | 329.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.92 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…324ebacked Astralis | 31c | 323.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 361 | 52.6%190 W · 171 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2914…aff6backed paiN | 69c | 291.3$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…3bb3backed Astralis | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed paiN | 67c | 283.58$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.58 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed paiN | 69c | 270$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked paiN | 68c | 225.01$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdd…cd9dbacked paiN | 70c | 213.52$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 213 | 62.4%133 W · 80 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…f91cbacked Astralis | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 298 | 39.3%117 W · 181 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed paiN | 68c | 171.73$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 488 | 51.8%253 W · 235 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Astralis | 33c | 160.41$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 465 | 55.1%256 W · 209 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Astralis | 32c | 138.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 106 | 26.4%28 W · 78 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Astralis | 31c | 104$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 890 | 46.1%410 W · 480 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Astralis | 32c | 103.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -13.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Astralis | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed paiN | 71c | 99.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 686 | 59.5%408 W · 278 L | +65.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…b74fbacked paiN | 68c | 98.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.64 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203a…935fbacked paiN | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 284 | 54.9%156 W · 128 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…e430backed paiN | 71c | 84.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Astralis | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed paiN | 67c | 76.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 512 | 52.3%268 W · 244 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65fa…4c6abacked paiN | 70c | 74$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 115 | 64.3%74 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked paiN | 66c | 69.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Astralis | 31c | 65.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f1…fee6backed Astralis | 30c | 61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 160 | 51.3%82 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f24…3a09backed paiN | 69c | 59.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Astralis | 32c | 54.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb11…9845backed Astralis | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Astralis | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 514 | 46.9%241 W · 273 L | -22.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked paiN | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,779 | 59.1%1,052 W · 727 L | +104.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…a18abacked paiN | 69c | 43.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed paiN | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked paiN | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe075…bf89backed paiN | 67c | 36.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 171 | 46.2%79 W · 92 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed paiN | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5040…ac99backed paiN | 68c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…c4dfbacked paiN | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 268 | 62.3%167 W · 101 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: AST (-1.5) vs paiN (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Bounty PlayoffsAstralis won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 1 WinnerpaiN won
- Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 2 WinnerAstralis won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Astralis (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5)paiN won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs Astralis (+1.5)Astralis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.