TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,683
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,418

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,683 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe693…dd17backed No6c1,564$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4427841%114 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No50c589.11$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.3316548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No42c500.05$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.942,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes63c472.31$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.3312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No53c439.99$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.98,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed No51c428.98$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.4612226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed Yes53c426.72$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.5631542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes77c420.07$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.9813728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No18c370.73$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7813453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No49c362.24$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.711,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes61c347.69$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed Yes48c333.43$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.3142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5680…7f79backed Yes50c332.55$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.282962.1%18 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c318.86$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.615,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c317.72$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No45c315.36$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0501…73e1backed No17c280.13$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes67c274.65$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7649941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes45c246.03$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No39c227.23$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9345162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes55c221.62$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.0914637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa8…39c2backed No48c196.25$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9310311.7%12 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid+32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes54c191.42$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3549547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes54c171.66$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.251,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked No8c165.03$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1451321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeea3…f557backed No47c160.01$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.32157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83d8…555fbacked Yes51c159.85$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.852343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes48c156.64$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6531442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes59c148.34$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.44,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x142a…a44abacked No26c142.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6717945.3%81 W · 98 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No23c140.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.672,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No55c136.92$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No31c135.67$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes48c134.53$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.333129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes47c124.26$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.31,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes54c123.2$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.411044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No53c120.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5637533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No26c116.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.954,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed Yes50c114.23$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.235451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes51c110.95$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8610936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes41c107.03$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.749,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes58c101.76$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.1111663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes48c98.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.7968335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes48c98.33$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.9211223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes46c94.26$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.22,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes54c93.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.5725549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No52c91.91$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.8811652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes50c91.34$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6733450.6%169 W · 165 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No26c84.13$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0520342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No45c81.15$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5215529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes55c80$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3615545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed Yes62c80$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.855855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x172e…997fbacked Yes79c78.98$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.32744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4e…f700backed No36c77.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.732560%15 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes47c75.64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1c3…1d37backed No33c69.82$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.341154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed No55c69.13$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.026633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x991f…4a8bbacked Yes46c68.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.58742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked Yes55c66.86$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.917758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes46c64.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.987,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x553a…0c2bbacked No53c61.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.792450%12 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No54c58.71$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5619547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Yes67c57.94$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.341,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked No47c57.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes59c57.53$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc004…7eabbacked No50c55.08$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.521662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No53c54.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.887650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x208a…faa8backed Yes48c52.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.11650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-19.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked No46c52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9240741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No48c51.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7420942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe418…f304backed Yes52c50.58$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.282152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e3…f004backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.527732.5%90 W · 187 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No21c49.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2715435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes49c49.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.336747.8%32 W · 35 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+31.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes45c47.23$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2134934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc5b…619abacked No51c46.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6227464.6%177 W · 97 L-1.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed No40c46.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6118549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No61c46.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1819059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60ea…226bbacked Yes48c44.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+57.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No57c44.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.142049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes45c44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.226344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd72a…0f67backed No52c38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes53c36.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0240739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69a4…f990backed No49c36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.643923.1%9 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50d3…6a09backed No52c35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb4…5fd3backed No50c34.2$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.170%0 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e83…5659backed No47c33.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.724344.2%19 W · 24 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-27.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes47c32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9611729.9%35 W · 82 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8685…be37backed No50c31.1$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1835137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes47c29.91$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8517138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…17cbbacked No54c29.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.03683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeae6…6dd3backed No34c29.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104757.4%27 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No49c29.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2355538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No44c29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.762,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x31d4…eeb0backed No52c29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.08560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick72cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.