Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67909d430606d5e7e9ba36fb87223bd55595b93a4f496533dbfb626d10a381a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 6c | 1,564$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 50c | 589.11$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.33 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 500.05$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.94 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 63c | 472.31$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 439.99$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed No | 51c | 428.98$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 53c | 426.72$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.56 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 77c | 420.07$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.98 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 18c | 370.73$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 49c | 362.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.71 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 347.69$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.94 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 48c | 333.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 50c | 332.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.28 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 318.86$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 317.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 45c | 315.36$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.11 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…73e1backed No | 17c | 280.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 67c | 274.65$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 45c | 246.03$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 39c | 227.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 55c | 221.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed No | 48c | 196.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.93 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 54c | 191.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.35 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 54c | 171.66$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 8c | 165.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…f557backed No | 47c | 160.01$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…555fbacked Yes | 51c | 159.85$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.85 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 48c | 156.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 59c | 148.34$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 26c | 142.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 23c | 140.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 55c | 136.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 135.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes | 48c | 134.53$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 47c | 124.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 54c | 123.2$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 53c | 120.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 116.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 50c | 114.23$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 51c | 110.95$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 107.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 58c | 101.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.11 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 48c | 98.44$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 48c | 98.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 94.26$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 54c | 93.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…2eb3backed No | 52c | 91.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 50c | 91.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked No | 26c | 84.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 45c | 81.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 62c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 79c | 78.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4e…f700backed No | 36c | 77.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 47c | 75.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…1d37backed No | 33c | 69.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f2…4fc0backed No | 55c | 69.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x991f…4a8bbacked Yes | 46c | 68.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 55c | 66.86$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 64.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…0c2bbacked No | 53c | 61.87$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 54c | 58.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 67c | 57.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 47c | 57.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 59c | 57.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…7eabbacked No | 50c | 55.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 53c | 54.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…faa8backed Yes | 48c | 52.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked No | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 48c | 51.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 52c | 50.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 49c | 49.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 47.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 51c | 46.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 40c | 46.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 61c | 46.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…226bbacked Yes | 48c | 44.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 57c | 44.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72a…0f67backed No | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 53c | 36.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…f990backed No | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…6a09backed No | 52c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb4…5fd3backed No | 50c | 34.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5659backed No | 47c | 33.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8685…be37backed No | 50c | 31.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 47c | 29.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…17cbbacked No | 54c | 29.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae6…6dd3backed No | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 49c | 29.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…eeb0backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.