TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,421
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,421 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc17e…906abacked Yes31c733.47$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4954043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes36c609.87$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes2c549.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3442049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6484…7102backed Yes32c547.29$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0270%0 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No61c517.13$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.841,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c398.15$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7431442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x035a…ff68backed No77c365.55$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.4231542.9%135 W · 180 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes24c313.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.875,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf767…f052backed No62c289.27$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.368461.9%52 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c285.2$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.522,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes19c280.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.154,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c276.32$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes32c275.15$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.821,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca71…610bbacked No80c211.29$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.410865.7%71 W · 37 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+33.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes6c208.92$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1581234.1%277 W · 535 L+56.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes7c198.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6311436%41 W · 73 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes6c182.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6735233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes28c173$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.971,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes36c166.77$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7925549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc92b…a1c4backed Yes37c165.71$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.562147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83d8…555fbacked Yes38c153.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.932343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf171…85febacked Yes36c142.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c138.42$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.528,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x172e…997fbacked Yes24c135$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.742744.4%12 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3193…cc5abacked Yes29c132.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.02955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb989…9f16backed Yes12c130.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-58.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf038…e718backed No72c125.61$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.653956.4%22 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No77c125.46$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.869959.6%59 W · 40 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc969…0377backed Yes8c122.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.148512.9%11 W · 74 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe418…f304backed Yes20c121.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.562152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes33c120.36$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.722,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes17c117.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3614637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes34c103.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5268335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed Yes30c102.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9511663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c98.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes34c89.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8814544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x90a8…7a97backed Yes26c75.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.721741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+115%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c74.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.927,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No71c70.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.627762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No65c69.61$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6197570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No71c69.07$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.121,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes35c59.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8537533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes28c55.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5598236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes31c53.13$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4793734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No64c51.4$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.292,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes37c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.515545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x553a…0c2bbacked No62c49.88$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.952450%12 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed Yes33c47.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6666944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5473…38f4backed Yes40c47.41$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes40c46.76$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8152444.1%231 W · 293 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No67c44.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7762770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes39c44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1626344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x44a0…76e5backed No80c43.15$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.67771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+69%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes32c40.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8953525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fde…b480backed Yes30c39.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.994035%14 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5da1…a003backed Yes40c35.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2117138.6%66 W · 105 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No78c35.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.79,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No77c33.93$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.892,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes37c30.92$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f2…4fc0backed Yes40c30.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.316633.3%22 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No64c30.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0357038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes35c30.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…c493backed No66c29.48$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.175451.9%28 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+15.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb34d…e1bdbacked No62c27.83$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.68164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74f9…6024backed No63c26.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.526958%40 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58d5…d270backed No72c24.97$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.995641.1%23 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1098…10a7backed No73c24.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5841733.8%141 W · 276 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No65c24.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6821676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked No75c23.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8620928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0853547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No74c22.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8898571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe314…3c94backed No74c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.132661.5%16 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2861…4b7bbacked No62c19.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.253250%16 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a79…c875backed No61c17.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.852748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+3.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No68c17.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.471,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a9…2227backed No69c16.85$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.227173.2%52 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick74cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92b2…31c9backed No63c16.77$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.181926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd695…f470backed No71c16.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.85366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8327…577dbacked No71c16.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.719552.6%50 W · 45 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No66c15.68$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2752571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No76c14.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.4912762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd670…1e02backed No76c13.33$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.222265.8%146 W · 76 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.