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Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 Week of August 24 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,959
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,959 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ca4…c957backed No65c499.84$325 inWon+$174.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x403f…94f1backed No59c392.6$231 inWon+$162.0323044.3%102 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb307…9c25backed Yes61c292.78$179 inLost-$178.515626.8%15 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4060…3ec3backed No67c252$168 inWon+$83.7629564.1%189 W · 106 L+47.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes36c234.88$84 inLost-$83.6531738.8%123 W · 194 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes43c231.87$100 inLost-$1002321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes55c200$110 inLost-$11097140.3%391 W · 580 L-73.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No56c181.89$103 inWon+$79.1513130.5%40 W · 91 L-19.3wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x330d…b553backed Yes60c150.15$90 inLost-$90.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No57c125.97$72 inWon+$54.3336334.4%125 W · 238 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf98…d0bfbacked No52c109$57 inWon+$52.325054%27 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b57…e239backed Yes47c106.38$50 inLost-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No40c100.15$40 inWon+$60.0935534.9%124 W · 231 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c91.94$38 inLost-$37.831,08335%379 W · 704 L-94.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x137f…85dabacked No61c81.67$50 inWon+$31.85366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1840…6798backed No66c75.76$50 inWon+$25.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed No61c55.87$34 inWon+$21.5740052.3%209 W · 191 L+20.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x134e…d718backed No68c49.99$34 inWon+$16.14770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe8…5135backed No78c40$31 inWon+$8.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes63c40$25 inLost-$25.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d34…17e8backed Yes60c39$23 inLost-$23.252321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed Yes42c32.62$14 inLost-$13.641650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21fc…578bbacked No56c28.57$16 inWon+$12.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes56c20$11 inLost-$11.23452.9%18 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacf9…40a1backed No60c19.85$12 inWon+$7.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ccf…5f6abacked No66c19.69$13 inWon+$6.69742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed Yes57c18.91$11 inLost-$10.741866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd886…1746backed No60c17.49$10 inWon+$71080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+35.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.