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Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of August 24 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,033

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x403f…94f1backed No39c1,614$630 inWon+$983.9623044.3%102 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f3…844ebacked Yes44c467$204 inLost-$204.2831738.8%123 W · 194 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c399.98$292 inLost-$291.9997140.3%391 W · 580 L-73.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x702c…b1e6backed Yes8c381.52$32 inLost-$32.065154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No35c258.18$90 inWon+$167.8236334.4%125 W · 238 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed No58c249.22$144 inWon+$104.861,32224%317 W · 1,005 L-64.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes11c214.34$25 inLost-$24.6114539.3%57 W · 88 L+8.5wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No31c180.16$55 inWon+$124.7613130.5%40 W · 91 L-19.3wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xfc1f…a246backed Yes77c163.37$125 inLost-$1251353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No37c155.03$58 inWon+$97.3535534.9%124 W · 231 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53fb…a790backed No71c138.94$99 inWon+$40.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb811…7f7dbacked Yes74c80$59 inLost-$58.8650%3 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-30.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No42c73.36$31 inWon+$42.261,08335%379 W · 704 L-94.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfae8…c015backed Yes22c57.33$12 inLost-$12.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No33c50$17 inWon+$33.52528%7 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5238…be0dbacked Yes71c50$36 inLost-$35.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcc6…bb12backed Yes57c50$29 inLost-$28.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick67cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ecf…75d2backed No32c49.83$16 inWon+$34.031618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes31c48.33$15 inLost-$14.8224325.9%63 W · 180 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0cd…d931backed Yes69c45.49$31 inLost-$31.391866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe8…5135backed No52c40$21 inWon+$19.21050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2167…5dedbacked Yes65c38.46$25 inLost-$251625%4 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-59.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x460b…9894backed No36c36.11$13 inWon+$23.11580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ccf…5f6abacked No37c35.13$13 inWon+$22.13742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed No44c28.4$12 inWon+$15.9740052.3%209 W · 191 L+20.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xecd9…5565backed Yes59c22.44$13 inLost-$13.241369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed Yes51c20.41$10 inLost-$10.416955.1%38 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes64c20.01$13 inLost-$12.817843.6%34 W · 44 L-13.2wins-0.17per pick61cpaid-31.3%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xcaf9…6d7dbacked Yes76c19.99$15 inLost-$15.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ef0…e28ebacked Yes58c19.99$12 inLost-$11.59475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+61%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.