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Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 Week of August 24 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,692
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,692 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x121d…832abacked No10c1,731$167 inLost-$166.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x403f…94f1backed No52c700.5$365 inLost-$365.4123044.3%102 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes34c516.21$177 inWon+$338.8235534.9%124 W · 231 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes36c446$162 inWon+$283.930647.4%145 W · 161 L+36.4wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+33.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb307…9c25backed No65c246.71$159 inLost-$159.395626.8%15 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-33.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No59c199.98$118 inLost-$117.9997140.3%391 W · 580 L-73.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed No56c196.56$110 inLost-$110.11,32224%317 W · 1,005 L-64.3wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x714a…e775backed Yes29c160$46 inWon+$113.62133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebe…cef9backed Yes42c109.02$46 inWon+$63.23475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+154%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53fb…a790backed No77c102.95$79 inLost-$79.33250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes30c102.75$31 inWon+$71.6312243.4%53 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No63c102.62$64 inLost-$64.4813130.5%40 W · 91 L-19.3wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-44.8%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf640…02b1backed Yes50c100.64$50 inWon+$50.64837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdcdd…d359backed No73c100$73 inLost-$732744.4%12 W · 15 L-5.6wins-0.21per pick65cpaid-38.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes48c99.99$48 inWon+$51.993020%6 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe8…5135backed Yes58c89.85$52 inWon+$37.651050%5 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No53c87.89$46 inLost-$46.471,08335%379 W · 704 L-94.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes27c80$22 inWon+$58.4742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134e…d718backed No59c80$47 inLost-$46.84770.2%33 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8873…852abacked No67c80$54 inLost-$53.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick58cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes29c71.4$20 inWon+$50.932528%7 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick18cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ecf…75d2backed No37c52.8$20 inLost-$19.61618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed No53c50$26 inLost-$26.42425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-65.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No62c40.59$25 inLost-$25.14742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5552…6f16backed Yes62c34$21 inWon+$12.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x460b…9894backed Yes41c31.7$13 inWon+$18.7580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+59.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ccf…5f6abacked Yes42c30.95$13 inWon+$17.95742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes44c30$13 inWon+$16.819041.1%78 W · 112 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed No56c26.79$15 inLost-$15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd309…d769backed No53c26.36$14 inLost-$13.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x191e…ef6bbacked No54c25.5$14 inLost-$13.73450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No55c23$13 inLost-$12.658253.7%44 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f2…d1f0backed No58c20$12 inLost-$11.61553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No67c17.88$12 inLost-$11.986541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.