TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Fluxo W7M vs BESTIA (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BESTIAof Fluxo W7M, BESTIA
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,166
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$171,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,166 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 227 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe40e…9770backed BESTIA56c40,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,599.9317951.4%92 W · 87 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Fluxo W7M44c39,441$17,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,476.6175652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BESTIA56c31,287$17,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,708.985,05055.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L+117.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Fluxo W7M44c21,479$9,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,450.7922943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Fluxo W7M43c16,321$7,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,018.076454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed BESTIA56c12,742$7,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,597.482,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BESTIA62c6,697$4,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,534.073,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Fluxo W7M42c4,438$1,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,862.7510850%54 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked BESTIA69c3,682$2,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.6863157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Fluxo W7M49c3,680$1,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.721,01152.3%529 W · 482 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Fluxo W7M44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Fluxo W7M42c2,744$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1641,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Fluxo W7M46c2,684$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.1538841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Fluxo W7M49c2,049$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.0921953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed BESTIA53c1,568$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.9217052.4%89 W · 81 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa28a…01c5backed Fluxo W7M55c1,443$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.654459.1%26 W · 18 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed BESTIA56c1,436$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.5546555.1%256 W · 209 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed BESTIA55c1,394$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.121,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed BESTIA56c1,339$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.2959755.4%331 W · 266 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68a4…856ebacked BESTIA56c1,294$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked BESTIA44c1,286$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.4327452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed BESTIA69c1,226$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.1651942.2%219 W · 300 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb454…a98cbacked Fluxo W7M26c1,218$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.055536.4%20 W · 35 L-7.4wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed Fluxo W7M23c1,215$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27812750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Fluxo W7M46c1,200$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5522,52243%1,085 W · 1,437 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Fluxo W7M44c1,116$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.241,03353.2%550 W · 483 L+64.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Fluxo W7M45c1,079$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.3343933.7%148 W · 291 L-0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Fluxo W7M47c1,032$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.7855941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41f4…ee16backed BESTIA50c1,008$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.0858745%264 W · 323 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d6…513fbacked Fluxo W7M44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4401330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.24per pick55cpaid-48.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked BESTIA49c944.68$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.9994645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked BESTIA50c893.9$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.3824746.6%115 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x252f…a065backed Fluxo W7M7c763.19$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507834.6%27 W · 51 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf814…3388backed Fluxo W7M49c731$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68e9…845cbacked Fluxo W7M19c711.23$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13330236.8%111 W · 191 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb15…8393backed BESTIA57c684.21$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c72…7e7ebacked BESTIA57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2582842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-34.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4b…ecc5backed BESTIA57c595.86$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.336942%29 W · 40 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Fluxo W7M48c572.99$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0417240.1%69 W · 103 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x787f…d40cbacked BESTIA54c559$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.1427940.5%113 W · 166 L-16.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9714…5152backed Fluxo W7M50c537$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.58554.1%46 W · 39 L+11.6wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+40.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4f17…6001backed Fluxo W7M49c534.25$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.937152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Fluxo W7M45c532.24$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.5134140.8%139 W · 202 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c4…3212backed BESTIA57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.3231761.2%194 W · 123 L+22.1wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ff3…9b05backed BESTIA57c526.32$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.323455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e2…d472backed Fluxo W7M27c523.49$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.9626624.4%65 W · 201 L-26.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-33.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x63ef…7d38backed BESTIA54c513.56$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.533154.8%17 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0758…9532backed Fluxo W7M45c500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22518736.4%68 W · 119 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae22…3ab3backed BESTIA50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504151.2%21 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x079e…5e12backed BESTIA54c491.35$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.02475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+63.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed BESTIA63c482.28$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.642,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed BESTIA56c473.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.561553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Fluxo W7M44c460$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.449536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc8…4f5bbacked BESTIA51c434.39$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.0523244.8%104 W · 128 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BESTIA60c434.17$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.933,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df3…b8bebacked Fluxo W7M46c432.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021254.2%115 W · 97 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fa…140bbacked BESTIA74c431.33$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.331154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick66cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e48…6158backed Fluxo W7M45c430$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.538052.6%200 W · 180 L+0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked BESTIA56c426.93$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.193557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f8…f047backed Fluxo W7M16c424.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671650%8 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Fluxo W7M46c409.8$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.352150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Fluxo W7M46c407.28$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3548240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Fluxo W7M46c395.63$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.9961154.7%334 W · 277 L+11.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc0c…dac0backed Fluxo W7M63c394.99$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.841475.4%312 W · 102 L+22.1wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Fluxo W7M44c392.52$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.196747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed BESTIA71c391$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.8888330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed BESTIA54c370.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3722567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b51…cf1ebacked BESTIA57c369$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.673831.6%12 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb997…faacbacked BESTIA70c367.93$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.4220553.2%109 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afc…23c9backed Fluxo W7M27c367.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x971f…1e98backed Fluxo W7M49c366.66$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803548.6%17 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Fluxo W7M44c360$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.439338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20c2…49c6backed BESTIA57c339.07$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+87.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Fluxo W7M44c336$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.842,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BESTIA54c331.46$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.455,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4727…0ca0backed BESTIA53c328.3$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.3475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+65%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed BESTIA55c318.18$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.185,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a8…9c69backed Fluxo W7M48c316.22$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.286550.8%33 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Fluxo W7M16c308.09$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.071,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Fluxo W7M46c305.82$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.842255.7%235 W · 187 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…76fabacked Fluxo W7M44c300$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.92552%13 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3995…47edbacked BESTIA57c288.69$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.145642.9%24 W · 32 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BESTIA45c277.25$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.492,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed BESTIA51c270$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.320045.5%91 W · 109 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked Fluxo W7M48c257.15$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1540655.7%226 W · 180 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7029…1136backed BESTIA57c251$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9321351.2%109 W · 104 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+12%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Fluxo W7M46c248.18$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4644552.4%233 W · 212 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50d7…f9bbbacked Fluxo W7M40c241.03$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BESTIA52c232$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.882,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BESTIA51c230$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.045,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xebf8…7d2bbacked Fluxo W7M44c224.27$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6815355.6%85 W · 68 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf48…36c2backed BESTIA57c221$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.034129.3%12 W · 29 L-6.3wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-35.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked BESTIA77c217.2$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9616240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed BESTIA46c215.18$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.251,08342.1%456 W · 627 L-13.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ff…b842backed BESTIA57c214.04$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.043256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x267c…5bfdbacked BESTIA57c210.3$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.4317955.3%99 W · 80 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4df2…d357backed Fluxo W7M48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…0e12backed BESTIA54c198.77$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4355039.6%218 W · 332 L-20.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…20d0backed Fluxo W7M50c195.75$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3661054.9%335 W · 275 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked BESTIA67c193.73$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.762,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.