Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6ad04bd010151eeb889e8f6766580414362b84730b3127cb7d3e51413930ee5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 1,037$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked Yes | 22c | 836.49$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 827.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 6c | 594.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e3…07bcbacked No | 69c | 432.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.82 | 99 | 76.8%76 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 350.82$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 78c | 219.69$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 5c | 200.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 36c | 185.01$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 176.88$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 37c | 158.81$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.76 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 66c | 139.64$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 136$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 27c | 107.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 28c | 103.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 102.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 91.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 72c | 90.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.47 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 70c | 82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 71.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 69.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 68.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 25c | 63.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 60.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 55.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 76c | 50.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 75c | 48.23$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 48.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 29c | 45.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 42c | 45.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 29c | 45.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 70c | 40.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 30c | 39.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 68c | 39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…88b9backed Yes | 58c | 34.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 70c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 42c | 26.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 72c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2657…bad1backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 69c | 22.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 22.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…85d4backed No | 73c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 51c | 20.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 65c | 17.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 68c | 14.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 78c | 12.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.