Space · resolved market
Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6dc09210b8326511175f8d7adb3c9743eba77f10c24a6a71b9449e5ab5ea534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 28c | 1,884$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +285.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Yes | 45c | 1,317$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed Yes | 69c | 1,095$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…b128backed Yes | 2c | 1,047$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4c…01cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 61c | 900.83$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.42 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes | 2c | 885.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6880…8abebacked Yes | 38c | 508.8$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 15c | 459.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…c0f4backed Yes | 74c | 400$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…2804backed Yes | 14c | 396.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…54b7backed Yes | 6c | 291.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 48c | 270.41$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 59c | 265.76$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1682backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3c…d83fbacked Yes | 71c | 126.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd74e…045dbacked Yes | 17c | 111.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca5…5881backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb4…e472backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…8667backed Yes | 15c | 98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd8…916fbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 27c | 37.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…1332backed Yes | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…adccbacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…d7c2backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.