Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f0f3884422656ffa199e4bfe8d4b7118e1b1dc89b3dd0a0e0fb085257b7508
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,763
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,763 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 547.42$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 385.61$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 68c | 361.88$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 359$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 349.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.49 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 22c | 342.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 317.27$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 301.2$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 35c | 236.39$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 213.83$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.54 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 188.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 31c | 187.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 161.3$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 25c | 149.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 69 | 26.1%18 W · 51 L | -11.5wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 54c | 115.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 63c | 114.8$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 20c | 107.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 106.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 105.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 73c | 103.81$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 57c | 99.63$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 36c | 94.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 39c | 90.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 73c | 81.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 64c | 74.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 30c | 68.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63cc…eec5backed Yes | 20c | 63.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 25c | 57.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 34c | 56.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 54c | 55.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 53c | 52$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 31c | 50.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 50c | 50.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 30c | 49.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked Yes | 37c | 49.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…3215backed Yes | 28c | 46.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 39c | 46.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 37c | 44.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 53c | 44.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 43.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 39c | 43.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5154…aa32backed Yes | 37c | 40.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 74c | 40.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 61c | 32.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 31.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 29.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 28.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 21.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 20.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.