Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfad5519c2d2f431ad03a3efc8ec3f337aa9dc6fb3757fa6aa9952f136cb7a81c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,820
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 774.03$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.57 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 36c | 397.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 51c | 346.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.31 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 54c | 321.71$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…1334backed Yes | 37c | 299.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed No | 50c | 241.73$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed No | 60c | 198.91$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 190.59$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 182.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 169.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 55c | 141.21$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 140$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.12 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 8c | 137.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 47c | 134.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.57 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 131.06$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 23c | 127.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 52c | 119.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 116.42$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 110.75$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.59 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 34c | 110.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 106.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 95.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 89.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 56c | 85.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7782…f35fbacked No | 35c | 81.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 80c | 76.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 74.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad6…29f2backed No | 69c | 72.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…01e6backed No | 43c | 69.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 75c | 62.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 41c | 61.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 60.66$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.89 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 69c | 57.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…3157backed No | 58c | 51.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed No | 59c | 51.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b10…523bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked No | 25c | 48.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 45.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 55c | 42.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 27c | 42.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 57c | 42.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717f…3fb1backed Yes | 41c | 42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 58c | 40.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 36c | 39.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…5cf9backed Yes | 28c | 38.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 36.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 35c | 36.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 35c | 34.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 64c | 31.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 75c | 31.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0253…bcadbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…3327backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…f629backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 29.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 54c | 29.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 58c | 26.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 67c | 26.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 25.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 25.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 54c | 23.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a54…4aaebacked Yes | 46c | 23.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 22.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 63c | 20.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…b46dbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e4…5583backed Yes | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a582backed Yes | 69c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 77c | 15.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.