Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f27b67de29910099d8a26d188b6375c42d4fbbbe82db9e0c57c9c334f13001
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 2c | 1,325$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 9c | 862.38$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 36c | 277.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.9 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 4c | 257.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 11c | 145.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 79c | 122.81$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 11c | 108.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 55c | 105.73$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 10c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 16c | 86.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 73.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 77c | 70.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 52c | 69.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked No | 60c | 67.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 21c | 63.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 61.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 33c | 45.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 43.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 40.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 52c | 37.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0ec7backed Yes | 50c | 37.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 36.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 58c | 32.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 54c | 30.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1790…6fd2backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 67c | 29.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…d53fbacked No | 63c | 28.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 26.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 63c | 25.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 40c | 25.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 67c | 23.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…4f72backed No | 61c | 23.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 241 | 64.7%156 W · 85 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf424…6e3ebacked No | 67c | 22.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…6e63backed No | 62c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…cd19backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.