MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6f847cc789d907d2aa04166ccd7d26266bb7906021e3cf6b9d6d685b804e0b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof San Diego Padres, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7138…8c89backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 296.64$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked San Diego Padres | 10c | 200.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 101.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 95.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego Padres | 30c | 85.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 76.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 70.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Diego Padres | 36c | 62.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 53.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Diego Padres | 36c | 42.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 38.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 38.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed St. Louis Cardinals | 63c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.