MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa60103ced581e9a137293e555754dfae30a85a3d02efc53c6704c16fd16af16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 52c | 50,000$26,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,999.99 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Over | 48c | 40,000$19,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,200 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 48c | 7,440$3,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,571.24 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 47c | 3,522$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 3,058$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.56 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Under | 52c | 2,977$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.92 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Under | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 47c | 1,550$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.42 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 48c | 1,005$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.4 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 858.71$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.18 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Under | 53c | 657.66$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.1 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 13c | 440$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.95 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 10c | 424$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 77c | 389$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.94 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 306.87$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.3 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Under | 53c | 224.74$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.63 | 541 | 52.1%282 W · 259 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 201.26$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.62 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 52c | 193$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.64 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 249 | 50.6%126 W · 123 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 52c | 188.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 53c | 187.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 51c | 168.66$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3a…7fdcbacked Over | 11c | 165$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e46…42dfbacked Under | 53c | 129.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 17c | 86.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 53c | 82.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.97 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…14d6backed Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 67.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 59c | 66.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 48c | 64.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 60.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d5…138ebacked Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 53c | 55.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…09d0backed Under | 75c | 53.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 48c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…8e4abacked Under | 53c | 48.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 25c | 41.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 51c | 39.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 48c | 39.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99d5…9622backed Under | 53c | 38.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 76 | 43.4%33 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 53c | 38.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864d…9c2ebacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 46c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 53c | 26.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 53c | 23.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 53c | 22.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 47c | 21.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…d9e2backed Under | 53c | 21.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 5.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.